Handicapping the 2012 Preakness Stakes Contenders....
the 2nd leg of the Triple Crown Series
The middle jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown which is held on the 3rd Saturday in May every year is ONLY 3 days away!
Since there are 5 other Derby runners coming back to take on I'll Have Another in the Preakness Stakes they seem to be saying that he is NOT a LOCK to win!
I am not so sure I agree ....
Derby runners Dullahan (3rd), Liaison (6th), Union Rags and Hansen have ALL decided NOT to challenge I'll Have Another (won), Bodemeister (2nd), Went the Day Well (4th), Creative Cause (5th), Daddy Nose Best and Optimizer.
Also previously under consideration for the Preakness Stakes were Hierro (won Derby Trial), Guyana Star Dweej and Isn't He Clever, have dropped out!
In handicapping the Preakness Stakes you needs to include the NEW shooters who almost always have a say in the Exotic wagers (Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta) ...
Do you know which runners have the BEST chance of stopping I'll Have Another?
Will it be the Kentucky Derby favorite and speed horse Bodemeister ?
The Preakness Stakes is limited to 14 runners and it looks like we will have 12 going to the starting gate. 6 horses are from the Kentucky Derby and 8 new shooters will join them!
Do you know which of the new faces have the Pedigree for winning the Preakness Stakes?
If you are not aware of the importance of Pedigree for the Triple Crown races and it's importance for picking the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta, then view the Preakness Recap page on this site to see our results over the last several years ...
To Order Preakness Stakes Picks Click Below....
Just like in the Kentucky Derby, there is a Winning Profile that has proven itself over the years at the Preakness and it is different from the Derby and Belmont Winning Profiles.
It is extremely difficult for 3-year old horses to meet the demands of 3 races at 3 different distances at 3 different tracks over a period of just 5 weeks!
Thus the difficulty of winning the Triple Crown ...
Most people think that the Pimlico track is a early running pace speed track and that horses coming from off the pace can not win the Preakness Stakes.
That was true at one-time, however, the folks at Pimlico have done an excellent job in recent years to eliminate this track bias. They have also widen the turns so they are not so sharp, which had also helped the speed horses. The turns are now most like Churchill Downs!
Unfortunately, a lot of the jockeys still think they must be up front early in order to have a shot at winning the race. Therefore you can count on Shackleford and Flashpoint being pressed right from the start. There should be a fair amount of early speed which could set it up for a horse to win coming from off the pace or a closer!
To Order Preakness Stakes Picks Click Below....
Remember Magic Weisner in 2002?
He came from out of the clouds to just miss catching speedster War Emblem at odds of 45-1 and made for a very nice Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta payouts ... Exacta $327, Trifecta $2,311 and the $1 Superfecta gave back $6,701 ...
Our Preakness Stakes Picks utilizes the Proven Winning Profile to identify those horses that have the CORRECT pedigree for winning the 2nd Leg of the Triple Crown series.
It has been successful in 9 of the last 14 years in picking the winner!
Not only has it picked the winner but also the Exacta in 11 of the last 14 years, the Trifecta in 7 of those 14 years and even hit the Superfecta in 5 of those!
Included with the Preakness Picks is our powerful wageringstrategy for the Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta bets.
Just in case there is rain on Saturday, we will also tell you which runners will like a wet track and which will not!
The last 2 times the Preakness was run on a sloppy track we saw longshots win. In 1983 Deputed Testamony paid $31.00 and in 1972 Bee Bee Bee paid $39.40
To win on a sloppy track or muddy track a horse must have a proven pedigree for winning on a off-track surface.
The key to making money on the Preakness Stakes is to hit the Trifecta and Superfecta tickets without requiring a large bankroll to get maximum coverage in a 14 horse field.
You will also be provided with a Link where you can download FREE Past Performances for ALL Preakness Stakes horses.
I'll Have Another becomes the first Kentucky Derby winner coming from Post 19 since 1900 .... and the 130 year curse of Apollo remains in tack as front running Bodemeister could not last to the wire!
I'll Have Another also gave trainer Doug O'Neill his first Kentucky Derby win and jockey Mario Gutierrez a Kentucky Derby win in his very 1st attempt in the first leg of the Triple Crown series! A job well done by all.
It looked like Bodemeister was going to go wire-to-wire as he flew out of the gate and never looked back!
The expected pace duel by Trinniberg never really happened as Bodemeister lead all the way till the last 50 yards. It looked as though Bodemeister was running easily on the front end and that he would hang on for the win, but that last 50 yards was just too much to overcome as I'll Have Another kept coming after him to win by 1 1/2 lengths.
Bodemeister's 6F time of 1:09 4/5 tied for the 4th fastest in Derby history! Despite the brutal pace he set, he still finished well as he finished the final 1/4 mile in :27.4 as he held on for 2nd by a nose over Dullahan.
I'll Have Another got as close to a perfect trip as you can get from post #19. Gutierrez got him to break well and guided him over to be placed behind the 5 top runners. From there he continued to race in the clear where upon nearing the final turn he guided him up between runners. He had to go a little wide rounding the turn and then just kept coming after Bodemeister in the center of the lane.
Dullahn who closed well in the stretch to just miss 2nd by a nose to Bodemeister had to go wide in the far turn. His jockey Kent Desormeaux said he had to go wide because of 2 other runners that came out in front of him. He did make up a lot of ground coming down the lane.
Went The Day Well finished 4t at 30-1 which made for a very nice Superfecta payoff of $96,092. He also closed well from the back of the pack as he was racing in 17th for the first 1/2 mile and was still in 14th position after a mile but made up a ton of ground down the lane.
The Oaks/Derby double paid $731.20 and the Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick3 paid $3,492.45 for a 50 CENT wager!
New records set in attendance and wager handle at the 138th Kentucky Derby!
A new attendance record of 165,307 broke the previous record set last year.
Total wagering handle on the day's full card of 13 races was $187 Million up from $165.2 Million of last year. (maybe the economy is getting better?)
Total amount wagered on the Derby race itself was $133.1 Million.
Next up is the Preakness Stakes in 2 weeks and I'll Have Another makes his bid for the Triple Crown!
Our Derby Picks
Bodemeister was our highest ranked horse in our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" however we did NOT make him our top pick because of his NOT having raced at 2 and being a dead on front running style of horse.
We did keep him in our mix as we felt he had a good shot at hanging on for a piece. We made the undefeated Gemologist our top pick as he scored the 2nd highest points on our Profile!
We found out after the race that he did suffer a foot injury. We made Gemologist our A1 horse with Creative Cause (A2) and Dullahan (A3). We had Bodemeister in our C1 contender. We did make Creative Cause as our TOP Longshot to win at 12-1. He ran a very solid race and will be a major contender in the Preakness if he runs!
We liked I'll Have Another all year long and had him in his 2 previous races, but I did not like the #19 post with his usual running style of needing to be pressing the front runners. I felt he would use up too much energy getting over from the outside to get within a couple of lengths of Bodemeister, Trinniberg and Hansen and that would result in him vacking up quickly after 1 mile or so!
Trainer O'Neill did a great job in his training leading up to the race and having his unknown jockey Gutierrez get him out of the gate quickly and move over to join the 2nd level of runners about 7 - 8 lengths behind the front runners.
Hopefully you did take our advise in Bottom-Wheeling the Favorite (Bodemeister) to the Field (I'll Have Another) in the Exacta. It paid $306.
Our Full Card Selections .......
We had (10 of 13) Exacta in our Top 4 picks. Race 1 ($11.60), R2 ($26.40, R5 ($72.20), R6 ($32.00), R7 ($16.20), R8 ($91.80), R9 ($41.60), R11 ($306.60), R12 ($25.00).
Hit (5) $1 Trifectas in R1 ($56.10), R5 ($100.80), R7 ($87.20), R9 ($176.00) and R12 ($40.30).
Had (3) $1 Superfectas in R1 ($126.20), R5 ($1,133.90) and R12 ($142.20)!
We also hit (5) Daily Doubles, Race 2 ($25.40), Race 6 ($101.80), R7 ($35.00), R8 ($66.80) and R9 ($81.40). As well as the 50 Cent Pick 3 in R9 ($71.95).
One of the big pedigree lines in our "Proven Winning Derby Profile" is the Raise A Native sire line. There were (6) horses in the Derby field that had this pedigree line. (4) of them were I'll Have Another, Bodemeister, Dullahan and Went the Day Well! That is the Superfecta that paid $48,046.40!
That is a most powerful stat.
The Preakness Stakes is up next and I'll Have Another will be attempting to win the Triple Crown. Can he do it?
The Road to the Kentucky Derby actually began last November with the running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile which was won by Hansen in a front running effort. However, the 2nd place finisher, Union Rags has been made the early Derby Favorite.
Between the time of the BC Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby, there will have been approximately 50 prep-races run to determine which 20 horses will enter the starting gate at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May!
Of those 50 races, 35 are Graded Stakes races. Of those, there are 7 which are classified as Grade I races.
Those 35 will determine which 20 horses will start in the Kentucky Derby as each 3-year old’s career Graded earnings is used for eligibility to run for the Roses! The top 20 earners get in.
Of course there are always some defections, for various reasons, from the top 20 which then allows the horse(s) with the next highest Graded earnings to get in.
The winners of Graded races with purses of $750,00 or more will have more than enough Graded Earnings to get in the Kentucky Derby!
They are: BC Juvenile, Delta Jackpot, CashCall Futurity, Louisiana Derby, Sunland Derby, Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, UAE Derby, and the Blue Grass.
However, it is not necessary to win one of those 11 races to get in. By finishing 2nd or 3rd in multiple prep-races you should earn enough to finish in the top 20!
In 2010 the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver did not win any of the 3-year old Prep-races but still had enough earnings by finishing 2nd in the Arkansas Derby after having won the KY Cup Juvenile in his 2-year old campaign.
Other recent Kentucky Derby winners who did not have a 3-year old Prep-race win are Mine That Bird (50-1), Giacomo (50-1) and Funny Cide (12-1)!
Horses Off the Derby Trail
* Empire Way, Souper Speedy, Motor City, Spring Hill Farm, Fed Biz, Out of Bounds, Consortium, Junebugred, Algorithms, Sky Kingdom, Chips All In, Gentleman's Bet, Secret Circle, Reveron, Mark Valeski *
The major Derby Prep races will create a lot of questions during the lead up to May 5 and will leave us all confused!
One thing that does not change very much over the years is the Proven Winning Derby Profile.
Year-in and year-out, the Winning Derby Profile proves itself. The Winning Profile consists of the horse's 2-year old and 3-year old racing campaigns and their pedigree.
Yes, a horse can have raced too much or too little in their 2 and 3-year old campaigns.
If the horse does not have the proper amount of conditioning and experience, it becomes just too difficultt for them to win the difficult 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby!
In 2010 the "Proven Winning Profile" ranked Ice Box as the top choice closely followed by Super Saver.
Because of the wet track Ice Box was not able to make up enough ground in the stretch run and finished 2nd to SuperSaver! A $10 Exacta Box paid $380.
Pedigree is also critical to having a legitimate shot at winning the Kentucky Derby.
Buckpasser, War Admiral, Mahmoud, Nassrullah, Raise A Native, Phalaris are ALL critical bloodlines to have, if you want to win the 1 1/4 Mile distance of the Kentucky Derby as a 3-year old!
Did you know that 31 of the last 49 1st or 2nd place finishers had the passing of the X-Chromosomes of War Admiral or Mahmoud in the correct position for inheritance?
In 9 of the past 10 Kentucky Derby(s) the Winner had the "Large-Heart" trait. That is correct, Animal Kingdom (2011 - $43.80), Super Saver (2010 - $18.00), Big Brown (2008 - $6.80), Street Sense (2007 - $11.80), 2006 (Barbaro - $14.20), 2004 (Smarty Jones - $10.20), 2003 (Funny Cide - $27.60), 2002 (War Emblem - $43.00), 2001 (Monarchos - $23.00).
In 2010 the 4 Top finishers ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $1,169 for a $1 wager and the $1 Superfecta paid a whopping $101,285!
In 2008 the 1st, 2nd and 3rd place runners ALL had the X-Chromosome of War Admiral or Mahmoud. The Trifecta paid $3,445.60!
In 2002 ALL 4 of the top finishers had the "Large-Heart" trait in their pedigree. The Exacta paid $1,300, Trifecta was $18,373 and the Superfecta returned $91,764 .........
The X-Chromosome is known as the "Large-Heart" trait which allows for pumping more oxygen to the blood. Secretariat's 31 length romp in the Belmont Stakes is attributed to him having this pedigree trait! After his death an autopsy was done and it was determined that his heart weighed 22 lbs. The normal thoroughbred heart weighs 8 lbs.
Did you know that 18 of the past 26 Derby(s) a horse with Buckpasser in their bloodline Won or Came in 2nd? (10 of those won)?
In 2010 BOTH Super Saver and Ice Box carried this bloodline.
In 2002 BOTH the winner & 2nd Place horses, War Emblem and Proud Citizen had the Buckpasser bloodlines and the Exacta paid $1,300 and the Trifecta was $18,373. The Derby winner paid $43.00 and the Place payoff for Proud Citizen was $24.60!
In 2003 BOTH the Derby winner and 2nd Place horses, Funny Cide and Empire Maker traced back to Buckpasser and the Exacta paid $97.00 Just imagine if you had made a $20 Exacta bet ... you would have gotten back $970.00! The winner Funny Cide paid $27.60 for every $2 wager.
In 2005, the year of the biggest upset in over 100 years (Giacomo won at 50-1) the 2nd Place horse Closing Argument had the Buckpasser bloodline and he paid $70.00. The Giacomo / Closing Argument Exacta paid $9,814.80!
In 2006 when Barbaro won, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers traced back to Buckpasser. Bluegrass Cat paid $28.40 to Place. The Exacta paid $587.00, Trifecta was $11,418.40 and with a deadheat for 4th, the Superfecta(s) paid $42,430.20 and $29,919.50!
Did You know 18 of the past 30 winners (60%) trace their broodmare sire line back to Princequillo, Nassrullah, Northern Dancer or Turn To.
6 of the last 10 Derby winners had this pedigree. Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Giacomo (2005), Funny Cide (2003) and Monarchos (2001).
That is correct the 50-1 winner Giacomo had the broodmare sire bloodline of Turn-To.
In 2003 ALL 4 of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finishers had this pedigree bloodline. The Exacta paid $97.00, Trifecta was $664.80 and the Superfecta paid $2,795.80.
Do you think it would be advantageous to your handicapping process to know which Kentucky Derby runners had these pedigree lines?
Of course you do!
Again pedigree is MOST important when selecting your Derby horses. It proves itself year after year after year. Yet Millions of dollars are wagered every year on horses that do NOT have the pedigree necessary to win the Kentucky Derby!
If you do not know how to determine a horse's bloodlines that arenecessary for winning the Kentucky Derby which requires a horse to have the stamina to last the 1 1/4 Mile distance, then you need to get the Proven Winning Derby Profilenow!
With the 20 horse field size of the Kentucky Derby, the chances of seeing a major upset with longshot runners finishing in the top 4 are very, very high!
Thus we ALL will have an opportunity to cash-in with a possible life changing Trifecta or Superfecta winning ticket.
Remember 2005 when Giacomo won at odds of 50-1 and the $2 Exacta paid $9,814, the Trifecta gave back $133,134 and the $1 Superfecta paid a life changing $864,353?
The Proven Winning Derby Profile identified Giacomo as one of the MOST LIKELY horses to be in-the-money! He was not the top pick but was one of the main Contenders.
The 2005 payouts set all-time records with over $100 Million being wagered on the Derby race for the 1st time and the $864,253 payout for the $1 Superfecta set an all-time North American record.
The 10 year average for the Kentucky Derby payouts are :
the average $2 Win paid ........................ $38
the average $2 Exacta paid .................. $1,556
the average $1 Trifecta paid .............. $11,227
the average $1 Superfecta paid ..... $154,670
The large payouts are a result of the large 20 horse field and the large number of once a year uninformed players betting on horses that have NO chance of finishing in the top 4.
One of the MOST CRITICAL factors in the Proven Winning Derby Profile has identified 11 of the last 12 Kentucky Derby winners!
Yes Animal Kingdom (2011), Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008), Street Sense (2007), Barbaro (2006), Giacomo (2005), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Monarchos (2001) and Fusaichi Pegasus (200) ALL had this stat in their favor ....
If you knew what this factor was, do you think you would have a MUCH BETTER chance in picking the Kentucky Derby Winner?
Of course you do!
These uninformed, once a year players bet on the names of horses, the number of the horse or the jockey that is wearing their favorite color of silks and sometimes the jockey that won last year's Kentucky Derby!
The secret to cracking the Kentucky Derby puzzel is arming yourself with better information so that you can separate the Derby Pretenders from the Derby Contenders . This provides both the serious and novice handicappers a much better opportunity to cash-in on those BIG payouts!
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